working papers

Exchange Rate Effects on The Short-run Growth in The Post-Civil Conflict MENA Countries

 

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the tensest regions in the world, and civil conflicts occurring there are bloodier with a higher possibility of reoccurrence, and result in larger externalities. Above all, due to the common history, culture, and economic interests, the MENA countries are highly interconnected. This leads to a high level of political and military interferences causing security, political and economic instabilities. These instabilities motivate different prices, including the exchange rates, to fluctuate and, in turn, affect economic growth. Therefore, the current paper tries to identify the effects of this volatile channel on economic growth in the short-to-medium run post-conflict phase. Employing a panel-data technique, so we account for the endogeneity and country-specific unobserved characteristics, provides us with conclusive results proving the detrimental effect of exchange rate volatilities, particularly in populated MENA countries, during peaceful time. These results, however, are just suggestive in the post-conflict phase, due to data noisiness, and this supports making more investigations based on individual case studies.

To read the full working paper follow the link below

Hamati, S. (2019). Exchange Rate Effects on The Short-run Growth in The Post-Civil Conflict MENA Countries, Working paper,1 April 2019, Available at: https://www.ecesao.org/publications/publications-working_papers

Economic Overview Lebanon

Abstract

Since October 17, 2019, thousands of Lebanese all over Lebanon flood the streets furious at the economy collapse yelling “all government parties out.” Anti-government protest, or the “October Revolution” is the largest since almost 15 years, with no political party behind it.

October 17 Revolution did not start out of the blue, Lebanon had been facing dramatic economic drawbacks since 2009, GDP growth ranked 10.1% at the mentioned year and started to decline ever since to reach today in 2019 0.2% (Blominvest Bank, 2018), furthermore, Lebanon is ranked as the 3rd highest country with Debt to GDP ratio which compares the country’s public debt to its gross domestic product (GDP) and it reached 152.8% according to Central Intelligence Agency in 2017.

To read the full working paper follow the link below

Youssef, J. (2020). Economic Overview Lebanon. Working paper,8 February 2020, Available https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3519485

New World Financial System

Abstract

Physics and economics are two sides of the same coin. The cosmic physical equilibrium is fascinating work, and this is what modern economics should be. The world’s monetary movement suffers from an imbalance and fluctuation that violates laws of both economics and physics. Therefore, the two sciences must adapt to form one homogenous science and one integrated approach in order to create an ideal form of banking methodology to generate a real currency system for the growth and development of mankind. Criticism of the current monetary system takes many forms and it is well known to all economical leaders within the scientific community, but what about the exact role of money in its basic parameters?

Yousif Nabil Shenouda (2020). New World Financial System. Working paper, 8 March, Available https://www.ecesao.org/publications/publications-working_papers/